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Eureqa vs the Kentucky Derby: Triple the Hat, Triple the Fun

Posted by Jess Lin

07.05.2016 01:07 PM

 

KentuckyDerby2016.jpegAfter 2 years in a row of coming up roses, we’ve got our sights set on a 3rd year of success with the Kentucky Derby. We’ve got our handicapping data from Brisnet.com and we’ve prepped with plenty of mint juleps (drinks help you bet smarter, right?). Now we’ve spent the past couple days combining Eureqa’s data discovery horsepower with the raw horse power on the track to find out who’ll be in the winner’s circle for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

Rather than skimming through the daily racing form  before madly rushing the tellers with our bets, we turned to our tame A.I.-powered modeling engine, Eureqa, to automatically build, evaluate, and analyze billions of models to discover the most predictive factors. Eureqa’s machine intelligence lets us read and interpret the models, helping us steer the engine towards fruitful paths and away from red herrings. In the end, we found a model that combined these 5 key factors:

  • Standardized live odds probability
  • Speed over the past two races
  • Post position
  • Racing style
  • Track conditions

So where does that leave us?

Eureqa’s Top 5:

  1. Nyquist
  2. Gun Runner
  3. Exaggerator
  4. Creator
  5. Mohaymen

Want to try your paces with your own data against Eureqa? Come talk to us — and in the meantime, check back with us after the race to see how our predictions have panned out. With Eureqa at the wheel, we’re sure we’ll be riding “derby”.

Topics: Eureqa, Kentucky Derby

In the Winner’s Circle with Nutonian – Kentucky Derby Recap

Posted by Jess Lin

07.05.2015 09:30 AM

The roses have been picked, the hats have been thrown, and just like that, the most exciting two minutes in sports are over. The 141st Kentucky Derby had one of the most talented fields of all time, leading experts to chime in with opinions ranging all across the spectrum of contenders. So with no horse racing experience of our own, a few days for analysis, and our virtual data scientist Eureqa® – how did our predictions do at the 141st Kentucky Derby?

As it turns out, Eureqa did great! Not only did Eureqa correctly predict American Pharoah as the winner, Eureqa also correctly identified three of the top five horses across the wire:

      Predicted Actual
1 American Pharoah American Pharoah
2 Dortmund Firing Line
3 Materiality Dortmund
4 Danzig Moon Frosted
5 Tencendur Danzig Moon

Kentucky Derby 2015

Victor Espinoza rides American Pharoah to victory. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

With American Pharoah expected to run in the Preakness Stakes on May 16th, the world is ready for the Triple Crown drought to be broken. While American Pharoah will face new horses and challenges on his way there, Eureqa will help us discover the underlying factors that determine whether this audacious colt has what it takes to become only the 12th winner of the Triple Crown.

Want to join us on the ride? Try out Eureqa yourself and let us know what you find!

Topics: Eureqa, Kentucky Derby

Nutonian’s Predictions for the 2015 Kentucky Derby

Posted by Jess Lin

02.05.2015 03:51 PM

2015_Kentucky_Derby_1While most fans are heading to the Derby dressed in the epitome of southern style (though others are dressed in, well, you can see for yourself), we’ve been busy here at Nutonian getting our predictions ready for the 141st edition of the Kentucky Derby. Three horses have been scratched in the past two days, which would normally lead to plenty of last minute chaos for amateurs like us, but Machine Intelligence with Eureqa has been helping us stay the course.

Here’s what our virtual data scientist, Eureqa, expects from this year’s Kentucky Derby:

  1. American Pharoah
  2. Dortmund
  3. Materiality
  4. Danzig Moon
  5. Tencendur

And we’re off to the races! Come back next week for a recap of Eureqa’s performance.

Topics: Eureqa, Kentucky Derby

Derby Did You Know… Eureqa Edition

Posted by Jess Lin

01.05.2015 05:30 PM

kentucky-derby-141

With the Kentucky Derby just over 24 hours away and Kentucky Oaks kicking off tonight, hype and excitement for tomorrow’s race has been ramping up quickly here at Nutonian. Experts with decades of experience have been busy throwing their hats into the Derby ring, but Eureqa is helping even us amateurs discover the underlying factors that define Kentucky Derby winners. While betting the Derby is certainly a different beast from picking a winner, we’ve had fun comparing how betting odds compare against our models.

So what does Eureqa know that all the experts are missing?

  • Don’t overestimate jockey experience
  • Horse experience may not be as important as you think
  • While half of the field has the same running style, only a few key factors determine which horses will be able to handle the new pressure

 

We’ll post our Kentucky Derby predictions tomorrow before the race, so make sure to come back next week and see how we’ve done!

Topics: Eureqa, Kentucky Derby

Nutonian’s Hat is Ready for the 2015 Kentucky Derby – Is Yours?

Posted by Jess Lin

30.04.2015 03:30 PM

2015 Kentucky Derby 1Get ready to swap out your hockey jerseys for your most fabulous hats and put down the Bud Light for some refreshing mint juleps – it’s Derby Time! Here at Nutonian, we’re still watching how our predictions for the 2015 Stanley Cup play out, but we’re already champing at the bit for this year’s 141st Kentucky Derby. With last year’s success under our belt (top 4 horses across the wire and perfect predictions for #1, #3 and #5!), we’re turning back to Eureqa’s automated model discovery application to help us find the colt that will be running away with this year’s blanket of roses.

With plenty of Kentucky Derby betting advice flooding the news, both helpful and unhelpful, we’re sticking with our winning combination of our virtual data scientist, Eureqa, plus Brisnet.com’s unique handicapping data, to come up with our own rankings. Have some data of your own? Try it out yourself on Eureqa and see how your predictions turn out. Come back after the race to compare how you fared against our approach!

Topics: Eureqa, Kentucky Derby

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